The increase in the number and amplitude of seismic events across the planet is forcing scientists to develop new methods for predicting earthquakes. Studying the processes taking place inside the Earth, experts come to the conclusion that this is just another link in the chain of global climate change.
Sergey Pulinets, doctor of physics and mathematics, leading researcher of the ICI RAS, decided to share his experience of observing earthquakes with ALLATRA TV reportrs. He studies a wide range of issues related to earthquake precursors, as well as earthquake prediction based on the state of the ionosphere.
Why do earthquakes occur
Sergey Alexandrovich said that our Earth consists of tectonic plates that move very slowly. Of course, we know this from Geology, that at first there was one common continent, which then divided into five. These continents are in constant motion. And this cannot be disputed, because now there is a system of very accurate measurements, first of all, these are GPS and GLONASS navigation systems. Sensors located all over the planet are tracked using a satellite system. These measurements show the movement of tectonic plates.
Today we can observe that in various areas of our planet there are shifts of 2-3 centimeters per year. Naturally, when the interaction of plates reaches a critical level, its strength does not withstand such stresses, and a break occurs. The earth's crust can rise or fall several meters in one place. This leads to serious damage: volcanic eruptions, deformations of buildings and structures, ruptured gas pipelines, short-circuited electricity, fires, floods, and others. This is especially dangerous in densely populated regions of our planet.
To study the physical precursors of earthquakes, there are polygons where various anomalies were measured, such as gas output, ground water level, changes in the gravitational field, changes in the magnetic field, and changes in the conductivity of the earth's crust. Sergey Alexandrovich noted that various types of waves propagate in the earth's crust: transverse and longitudinal. And the ratio of the speed of transverse to the speed of longitudinal waves also changes before a strong earthquake.
These observations and measurements take some time. Such things as radon emissions, changes in the level of underground water, take quite a long period of time, somewhere a few weeks, even months.
But then, in 1997, a General analysis was carried out, seismologists from all over the world were involved, and they, from the point of view of such strict statistics, analyzed all these physical precursors and said that the reliability of this forecast is zero.
Then seismologists decided that the forecast of earthquakes is impossible. The word "forecast" disappeared from the scientific literature altogether, and articles were not published. This has had a very negative impact on the development of seismology and Geophysics in General.
But this period of "seismic extremism" has passed. somewhere in 2005, the United States and Russia already restored earthquake prediction councils, which again began to address this problem. It is based on statistical methods.
What are they? We study the flow of seismic events in this area, its distribution in time, space, magnitude, and so on. And then on this basis, some conclusions are made about what will happen in the future.
This is not to say that these methods are bad or unreliable, or not justified, but most of them work over long periods of time.
Also known from history is the case of a successful earthquake forecast in China. At that time, not only physical predictors of an earthquake were used, but also biological ones, that is, abnormal behavior of animals. At that time, measures were taken — a day or two before the earthquake, the population was evacuated. An earthquake occurred and a large number of people were saved. But, unfortunately, a few years later in the same region there was about the same earthquake and more than 100,000 people died there. It was not predicted.
If we talk about the problem of earthquake forecasting, at first the approach was purely mechanical. "If you apply stress to any substance," says Sergey Alexandrovich, — you will see that first there are elastic deformations, then cracking begins, then rupture. It was believed that this way you can calculate everything. First, the Earth is very heterogeneous: on the one hand, there are granites, on the other hand, there is sand — and there is a completely different role of these stresses, it can be compressed — and there is water, which is incompressible. And as the Parkfield experiment showed, this kind of mechanistic approach doesn't work."
The doctor of physical and mathematical Sciences believes that it is impossible to make a forecast based on just one harbinger.
Sergey Alexandrovich spoke about the approach of multiparametric analysis, which allows you to study and systematize patterns. It is very important that many parameters are online and can be obtained for free.
In order to predict, you need to know the location of the seismic event. Therefore, a global survey technology is being developed. It is important to find and identify these anomalies. Because they appear over fires, hurricanes, and other phenomena. After that, you need to conduct this multiparametric analysis in time and see what has changed. And now this is a service.
Analysis of the ionosphere
Sergey Pulinets, a leading employee of the IKI RAS, spoke about the interaction of geospheres. They create a model called "lithospheric-atmospheric-ionospheric-magnetospheric connections". That is, the planet as a whole is considered, based on Vernadsky's theory. And the fact that an earthquake occurs is direct evidence that this interaction exists. That is, the lithosphere also creates atmospheric anomalies, which are then transformed into ionospheric ones, and even then anomalies occur in the Earth's magnetosphere along the lines of force of the geomagnetic field, leading to the precipitation of energetic particles from the magnetosphere before an earthquake. That is, all the geophysical shells interact.
Surprisingly, the ionospheric anomalies are visible just at night. These are very strong positive ionospheric anomalies, and they disappear during the day. This happens a day before the earthquake. A good example is Greece, for which statistics were made.
After a long period of research and studying how all these anomalies behave, you can already purposefully generate statistics and use them for predicting earthquakes. You need to understand the reliability of this method. And when all the measurements are recorded after the earthquake occurred, you can see that these anomalies occur in 100 % of cases.
This research is carried out by a large circle of scientists from Japan, Taiwan, China, Italy, and the United States. The monograph published by the American geophysical Union in the Wiley publishing house contains articles by most researchers who deal With this problem, the processes that occur before an earthquake: geomagnetic, radio wave propagation anomalies, meteorological and others. And the concept of multiparametric analysis is described.
How to act in emergency situations
The scientist believes that in unfavorable regions, it is necessary to conduct regular training so that people know what to do in emergency situations. We need to introduce proper propaganda and train the population on how to behave in certain situations. It is also necessary to cultivate humanity in order not to give in to panic at a critical moment and not to create an even greater threat to people's lives.
As the expert said, this is already a complex problem of the state of society, which needs to be comprehensively addressed and not only because of the need to forecast earthquakes. There must be openness in society. People should be aware of how the government behaves in certain situations. You need to have some kind of behavior algorithm that you should not deviate from.
It all starts with education, with morals and the priority of spiritual and moral values over material ones. This is quite a complex process and depends on many factors. But it allows you to unite and overcome the turning points in life.
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